In our base case short to medium term outlook, we expect the economic and earnings growth cycle, interest rates, and government policy to remain broadly supportive of equities and other risk-asset markets. However, our five-year tactical analysis suggests we should be prepared for an extended period of lower absolute investment returns.
Global stock markets celebrated the one-year anniversary of the pandemic-induced bear market low (from late March 2020) with another strong quarter of returns. The first quarter also saw a continuation of the “reflation rotation” trend that has been happening beneath the market surface over the past several months. And while we believe the most likely scenario over the next year at least is a reflationary one, many investors are wondering if inflation will be a threat anytime soon. Chief Investment Officer Jeremy DeGroot addresses this question and discusses the ways in which broad market trends impacted portfolios.Litman-Gregory-First-Quarter-2021-Investment-Commentary
We see several ways for our portfolios to “win” looking out over the next five to 10 years. But we should also steel ourselves for a potential double-dip back down to the late-March market lows, most likely caused by disappointing developments on the virus/medical front.Litman-Gregory-Second-Quarter-2020-Investment-Commentary
We are all now living through a period in history none of us will ever forget. The impact on our families, communities, and country has been profound. Remember that we will get through this crisis period. Things will improve and recover. This too shall pass.Litman-Gregory-First-Quarter-2020-Investment-Commentary
What a difference a year makes. While in 2018, it was very difficult to make money in financial markets, in 2019, pretty much everything went up … a lot. In our year-end 2019 commentary, we identify the reasons to be cautiously optimistic in 2020, and the number of shorter-term risks to be aware of.Litman-Gregory-Year-End-2019-Investment-Commentary