In our base case short to medium term outlook, we expect the economic and earnings growth cycle, interest rates, and government policy to remain broadly supportive of equities and other risk-asset markets. However, our five-year tactical analysis suggests we should be prepared for an extended period of lower absolute investment returns.
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We think a reasonable base case is for a global economic recovery starting in the second or third quarter once the widespread distribution of effective vaccines gets the pandemic under control.
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We think there is a reasonable case to be made that the market/economic rebound is broadly sustainable. But there are still plenty of risks that could play out to derail it. The coronavirus is the biggest “known unknown” risk. And we are in an election year—so watch out for an October surprise.
How-Sustainable-Is-the-Market-Economic-Recovery
As we all know from news headlines, global stock markets have now entered a “bear” market, having declined more than 20% from recent highs. In Litman Gregory’s 30-plus years, we’ve been through several crises and stock market declines.
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Listen to a replay of our fourth quarter 2019 Litman Gregory research team webinar. Topics covered (among others): investment challenges, municipal bonds, U.S. and European stock valuations, value vs. growth, and small vs. large.
View and download the presentation slides here:
Litman-Gregory-Q4-2019-Research-Webinar-Presentation-Slides
Financial markets were choppy in the third quarter, buffeted by some familiar themes: on-again/off-again U.S.-China trade war headlines, weak global growth, recession fears, and central bank monetary policy. The bulk of this month’s commentary is devoted to laying out our compelling case against a higher U.S. stock allocation and why we favor international stocks.
Litman_Gregory_Third_Quarter_2019_Investment_Commentary